2026 midterm odds
Who controls the Senate and the House, and every Senate race, as Kalshi and Polymarket price them right now. Refreshed every five minutes. Gaps between venues only mean something when the contracts settle the same way, and each market page says whether that has been checked.
Senate control
The Senate map
Every 2026 Senate race, rated by the price of the Republican contract on Kalshi. Tap a state for the market.
Safe D 10Likely D 1Lean D 4Toss-up 2Lean R 1Likely R 1Safe R 9Crossbook call published
Number on each tile is the Republican contract’s price on Kalshi. Bands: safe beyond 85/15, likely beyond 70/30, lean beyond 55/45, toss-up between.
Closest races
- Kansas · Roger Marshall (R) vs Adam HamiltonR 50%
- Iowa · Ashley Hinson (R) vs Josh TurekR 53%
- Maine · Susan Collins (R) vs Troy JacksonR 39%
- AlaskaR 32%
- Texas · Ken Paxton (R) vs James TalaricoR 32%
- Ohio · Jon Husted (R) vs Sherrod BrownR 32%
- Nebraska · Pete Ricketts (R) vs Dan OsbornR 70%
- Michigan · Mike Rogers (R) vs Abdul El-SayedR 27%
Read Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:27 UTC. Venue prices, not Crossbook’s; a cyan ring marks a race Crossbook has published its own call on. Research and education only, not investment advice.
Election markets with a Crossbook page
Most active
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PM 93%
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePM 7%
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PM 16% · KS 19%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?PM 30%
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?PM 68% · KS 68%
Recently added
- Ohio Governor winner?: Vivek RamaswamyKS 20%
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?PM 65% · KS 62%
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?PM 39% · KS 39%
- Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?PM 83%
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?PM 1% · KS 1%
Settled
- Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?PM 42%
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?PM 96%
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Richland County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?PM 97%
- Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?PM 83% · KS 1%
- Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?PM 98% · KS 99%
- Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?PM 1% · KS 1%
- Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?PM 2% · KS 1%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PM 1% · KS 1%
- Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?PM 99% · KS 98%
Every Crossbook forecast is timestamped before the answer is known and scored afterwards, whether it was right or not. See the public record and the rules.