Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

SettledContract settles 8 Sept 2026Last checked 7 Sept 2026, 23:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-07T23:55:28.141Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

82.5%bid 82.0% / ask 83.0%24h volume $19K · liquidity $34Kas of 7 Sept, 23:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T02:55:26.659Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

0.3%bid 0.1% / ask 0.5%24h volume $263K · liquidity –as of 9 Sept, 02:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView this market's series on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 4 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Sep 8, 26

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Settles Jan 1, 27

If Maura Sullivan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement basis

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

57.0%against a market price of 82.5% at the timeNO
Logged 5 Sept 2026, 04:31 UTC · Brier 0.3249
- The clearest signal is the late polling sequence: Sullivan leads Shaheen by 2, 5, and 6 points across three August polls, with the latest fielded Aug. 28-31 giving her 33%-27%.
- Sullivan's roughly $3.6M-to-$2.4M fundraising advantage and rise from 8% in Dec/Jan to front-runner status are positive signal, though the old poll is mostly stale.
- Shaheen has meaningful counter-signal: Hassan, Kelly, Lynch, and most labor unions suggest strong in-state institutional support that can matter in a low-turnout primary.
- Key risks keep this below two-thirds: high undecideds in UNH, Beriont's late rise and Howard's endorsement could reorder late deciders, and attacks over out-of-state/AIPAC-linked money are salient in NH.
- With only three days to the Sept. 8 primary, there is little time for fundamentals to change, but late-breaking negative coverage or turnout effects can still move a plurality race.
What would change it: A final weekend poll or late decider break showing Shaheen ahead by several points, or Beriont surging into the high teens, would make Sullivan clearly less likely than not to win.
Settlement sourcet-0166

Context

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $262,764 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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