Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 4 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Sep 8, 26
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Settles Jan 1, 27
If Maura Sullivan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
Crossbook forecast
- 57.0%against a market price of 82.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 5 Sept 2026, 04:31 UTC
- The clearest signal is the late polling sequence: Sullivan leads Shaheen by 2, 5, and 6 points across three August polls, with the latest fielded Aug. 28-31 giving her 33%-27% [f3][f4][f5].
- Sullivan's roughly $3.6M-to-$2.4M fundraising advantage and rise from 8% in Dec/Jan to front-runner status are positive signal, though the old poll is mostly stale [f6][f8].
- Shaheen has meaningful counter-signal: Hassan, Kelly, Lynch, and most labor unions suggest strong in-state institutional support that can matter in a low-turnout primary [f10].
- Key risks keep this below two-thirds: high undecideds in UNH, Beriont's late rise and Howard's endorsement could reorder late deciders, and attacks over out-of-state/AIPAC-linked money are salient in NH [f4][f7][f11][f14].
- With only three days to the Sept. 8 primary, there is little time for fundamentals to change, but late-breaking negative coverage or turnout effects can still move a plurality race [f1].
What would change it: A final weekend poll or late decider break showing Shaheen ahead by several points, or Beriont surging into the high teens, would make Sullivan clearly less likely than not to win.
Context
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on this one. Both price it near 83%, so there is no cross venue disagreement to trade and no basis to speak of.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $18,808 on the busier venue.
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