Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

TradingContract settles 3 Nov 2026Last checked 30 Sept 2026, 22:20 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-30T22:25:26.783Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

58.5%bid 58.0% / ask 59.0%24h volume $5K · liquidity $127Kas of 30 Sept, 22:25 UTCView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-30T22:20:30.385Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

58.5%bid 58.0% / ask 59.0%24h volume $52K · liquidity –as of 30 Sept, 22:20 UTCView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 2 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Nov 3, 26

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenie…

Settles Jan 4, 27

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Maine for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement basis

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

This pair was once marked equivalent without the clauses that would show it, so it is shown as unverified until it is reviewed.

Confirmed as the same question: Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Crossbook forecast

55.0%against a market price of 67.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 25 Sept 2026, 21:07 UTC
- The base rate heavily favors incumbent Susan Collins, but the only direct case-specific evidence — a September 14-15 Quantus poll showing Collins 48, Jackson 47 — is a near-tie, which dominates the incumbency prior and pulls the estimate toward 50-50.
- Adjusting down from 50: Collins is a battle-tested incumbent who famously won in 2020 despite trailing in most polling, so a tied poll this late arguably understates her; Maine's polling has historically underestimated her support.
- Adjusting up: Maine is a blue-leaning state in federal races, 2026 midterms typically favor the party out of the White House, and Jackson now has a clean nomination after the Platner withdrawal, consolidating Democratic support behind an establishment figure.
- A single late-September poll within the margin of error is an anchor, not a distribution; the residual uncertainty over the remaining 38 days keeps the estimate well short of either extreme.
What would change it: A post-September polling average showing Collins ahead by 5+ points, or reporting that ranked-choice or third-party dynamics are structurally advantaging Collins, would push this estimate toward 0.30.
t-0216

Context

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $52,417 on the busier venue. It closes in about 33 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.

Related markets

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