Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
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Crossbook forecast
- 57.0%against a market price of 82.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 5 Sept 2026, 04:31 UTC
- The clearest signal is the late polling sequence: Sullivan leads Shaheen by 2, 5, and 6 points across three August polls, with the latest fielded Aug. 28-31 giving her 33%-27% [f3][f4][f5].
- Sullivan's roughly $3.6M-to-$2.4M fundraising advantage and rise from 8% in Dec/Jan to front-runner status are positive signal, though the old poll is mostly stale [f6][f8].
- Shaheen has meaningful counter-signal: Hassan, Kelly, Lynch, and most labor unions suggest strong in-state institutional support that can matter in a low-turnout primary [f10].
- Key risks keep this below two-thirds: high undecideds in UNH, Beriont's late rise and Howard's endorsement could reorder late deciders, and attacks over out-of-state/AIPAC-linked money are salient in NH [f4][f7][f11][f14].
- With only three days to the Sept. 8 primary, there is little time for fundamentals to change, but late-breaking negative coverage or turnout effects can still move a plurality race [f1].
What would change it: A final weekend poll or late decider break showing Shaheen ahead by several points, or Beriont surging into the high teens, would make Sullivan clearly less likely than not to win.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 83%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $18,808 on the busier venue. It closes today, so short term moves may say more about the settlement mechanics than about the underlying question.
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