Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 12 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Oct 4, 26
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensu…
Settles Oct 4, 27
If Ciro Gomes wins the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Kalshi prices this at 67% while Polymarket has it at 64%, a gap of 3.0 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $201 on the busier venue. It closes in about 26 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
Related markets
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.