Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:30:27.549Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
92.5%bid 92.0% / ask 93.0%24h volume $1.7M · liquidity $6.3Mas of 29 Oct, 20:30 UTCView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 83.3%against a market price of 92.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 25 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
- The base rate strongly favors Democrats: the president's party (Republican, holding 218 seats) has lost House seats in 90% of midterms since 1946, and with a bare 218-214 margin even a small loss flips control.
- Democrats need only a net gain of four seats to reach 218, a low bar given the historical average midterm loss for the president's party is well above that.
- The generic congressional ballot shows Democrats up 12 points (52-40) in the latest retrieved poll (Economist/YouGov ending October 5), a margin historically associated with large House seat gains; this is genuine signal, though a single poll three weeks old.
- Cook Political Report rates 17 races as toss-ups and shifted 19 race ratings toward Democrats on October 23, indicating late momentum in the competitive districts that will decide control.
- Tempering factors: the retrieved data lacks race-level polling in competitive districts and any presidential approval numbers, and the seat math means Republicans hold control even in a near-uniform-swing tie; a 12-point generic lead also likely overstates the final margin given historical polling error and Democratic geographic inefficiency.
What would change it: Late-breaking race-level polling or ratings shifts showing Republicans leading in a majority of the 17 Cook toss-ups, or a sharp narrowing of the generic ballot, would move this substantially toward GOP retention.
t-0274
Context
Polymarket prices this at 92.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $1,672,822 on the busier venue. It closes in 5 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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