Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle 57 days apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Sep 8, 26
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Settles Nov 3, 26
If Chris Pappas wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on this one. Both price it near 98%, so there is no cross venue disagreement to trade and no basis to speak of.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $87,211 on the busier venue.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.