Crossbook
 

Saturday, 14 November 2026

Kalshi and Polymarket disagree.
Crossbook keeps score.

We read both venues’ terms, call it before it settles, and grade every call.

7.5 pts apart on the same question.

Crossbook 23.3%. The base rate for a recession onset in any given ~15-month window is about 18%, derived from 12 NBER recessions across 75 years; the resolution rule's alternative two-consecutive-negative-GDP trigger broadens this only slightly, since such episodes nearly always coincide with NBER recessions.

PM KS

  1. US recession by end of 2027?
    Reviewed equivalent
    View data
    Data behind the comparison: US recession by end of 2027?
    Polymarket28.0%bid 27.0% · ask 29.0% · read 15 Nov 2026, 02:05 UTC
    Kalshi20.5%bid 20.0% · ask 21.0% · read 15 Nov 2026, 02:05 UTC
    Gap7.5 ptsEquivalent settlement terms · reviewed
    Crossbook t-024823.3%−10.3 pts against 33.5% at the call, 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
  2. Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
  3. Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
  4. Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
  5. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
  6. Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
  7. Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
  8. Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Bid/ask midpoints, read 15 Nov, 02:00 UTC. Bracket = terms reviewed as the same. Whole board →

Every call, once a week, already graded.

Monday mornings. Last week's widest Kalshi–Polymarket gaps, plus every call that resolved and what it scored against the market. Wins and losses in the same type. One email a week, never more.

Open calls

Widest disagreement with the market first.

  • Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

    Crossbook 37.0%market was 20.3% on 8 Sept+16.6 pts then
    now 0.5% as of 19 Oct, 09:05 UTCcontract settles 31 Dec

    Grindeanu is PSD's unanimously nominated candidate and leads both PSD and the Chamber of Deputies, giving him the strongest institutional platform of any contender.

  • Jensen Huang divorce by March 31, 2027?

    Crossbook 20.8%market was 33.5% on 12 Nov-12.8 pts then
    now 26.5% as of 15 Nov, 02:05 UTCcontract settles 1 Apr

    Infidelity has been publicly confirmed, which puts this case squarely in the at-risk reference class rather than the general married-population base rate (near-zero 5-month divorce rate).

  • Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

    Crossbook 20.5%market was 31.1% on 12 Nov-10.6 pts then
    now 19.8% as of 15 Nov, 02:05 UTCcontract settles 1 Jan

    Signal: as of November 11, 2026 there is no official announcement and director Denis Villeneuve says casting is still in progress, making any announcement within the remaining ~50 days uncertain — historically Bond casting decisions drag well past rumour timelines.

6 calls are past the close and awaiting the venue’s settlement. Every call, with its full reasoning →

Brier 0.2061 over 174 resolved, against the market's 0.1673 — behind by 0.0388. Every row is public.

See the full record →

Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.