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Kalshi and Polymarket disagree.
Crossbook keeps score.

Related events, two venues. We rank a price gap only after reading both venues’ settlement terms side by side, publish a probability before the market resolves, and grade every call against how the venue settled it.

The weekly scored table

Every call, once a week, already graded.

Monday mornings. Last week's widest Kalshi–Polymarket gaps, plus every call that resolved and what it scored against the market. Wins and losses in the same type. One email a week, never more.

Open calls · widest disagreement first

  • Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

    Crossbook 37.0%market was 20.3% on 8 Sept+16.6 pts then
    now 25.1% as of 30 Sept, 20:05 UTCcontract settles 31 Dec

    Grindeanu is PSD's unanimously nominated candidate and leads both PSD and the Chamber of Deputies, giving him the strongest institutional platform of any contender (f3, f19).

  • Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

    Crossbook 55.0%market was 67.5% on 25 Sept-12.5 pts then
    now 59.5% as of 30 Sept, 20:05 UTCcontract settles 3 Nov

    The base rate heavily favors incumbent Susan Collins, but the only direct case-specific evidence — a September 14-15 Quantus poll showing Collins 48, Jackson 47 — is a near-tie, which dominates the incumbency prior and pulls the estimate toward 50-50.

  • Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03?

    Crossbook 44.0%market was 53.0% on 30 Sept-9.0 pts then
    now 54.5% as of 30 Sept, 20:05 UTCevent 3 Oct

    Base rate: away wins in 90 minutes for comparable European national teams run around 30%, and the draw resolving No caps the YES ceiling.

1 call is past the close and awaiting the venue’s settlement. Every call, with its full reasoning →

Brier 0.2000 over 103 resolved, against the market's 0.1785 — behind by 0.0214. Every row is public.

See the full record →

Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.