Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
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Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:30:27.549Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
29.5%bid 29.0% / ask 30.0%24h volume $599K · liquidity $818Kas of 29 Oct, 20:30 UTCView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 36.8%against a market price of 31.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 29 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
- The only direct evidence is a Texas Southern University poll (Oct 21-25) showing Democrat Talarico leading Republican Paxton 49-47 among likely voters five days out; treated as signal, this makes the Democrat a slight polling favorite, which pushes Republican win probability below 50%.
- A single poll with a 2-point margin and 1% undecided is well within polling error, so this is an anchor, not a distribution; the race is best read as near-coin-flip on the polling evidence alone.
- Texas structural context pulls the other way: Republicans have won every Texas U.S. Senate race since 1993 and every statewide race since 1994, and Paxton is the Republican nominee in a midterm with a Libertarian drawing 3%, which historically correlates with modest Republican overperformance relative to polls in Texas (e.g., Cruz outpolling in 2018/2024). This is general knowledge, not from retrieved facts.
- The presence of a Libertarian at 3% and the fact that Texas has no Senate runoff under this contract's terms beyond the general election (settlement includes any runoffs, but Texas Senate races are plurality) means the 49-47 margin likely maps closely to the final outcome.
- Weighing one fresh likely-voter poll against Texas's strong red baseline, I land slightly below even money on the Republican, treating the poll as real but discounting it for house effects, single-poll noise, and Texas polling history.
What would change it: A subsequent multi-poll average (e.g., from established pollsters) showing Paxton tied or ahead, or evidence the TSU poll is an outlier, would move me toward the Texas Republican baseline of roughly 0.60-0.65.
t-0284
Context
Polymarket prices this at 29.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $599,191 on the busier venue. It closes in 5 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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