Ohio Governor winner?: Vivek Ramaswamy
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T19:20:26.919Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
19.5%bid 19.0% / ask 20.0%24h volume $213Kas of 29 Oct, 19:20 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 32.0%against a market price of 20.0% at the timeOpen
Logged 29 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC
- Ohio has trended Republican in recent presidential and Senate elections (Trump won by 8+ points in 2020), giving the GOP a structural advantage that suggests a base rate above 50% for the Republican nominee in an open-seat or standard gubernatorial race.
- However, the latest poll (October 21-26) shows Democrat Amy Acton leading Ramaswamy 48%-44%, a statistically meaningful 4-point deficit for the Republican with the election only 5 days away from the polling end date.
- The poll result is direct evidence of current voter preference and is more probative than structural trends alone; trailing by 4 points in late October historically converts to a win probability below 40% for the trailing candidate, though not dramatically so.
- The resolution rule requires a Republican to be inaugurated pursuant to the 2026 election; the ballot confirms Ramaswamy is the Republican nominee alongside McColley for lieutenant governor, so a Ramaswamy victory satisfies the condition.
- With 77 days to close and Election Day on November 3, the market will resolve based on the outcome within days; time-decay is minimal as the result will be known well before the close date.
What would change it: If subsequent polling or reporting shows Ramaswamy has closed the gap or taken a lead, or if there is a significant scandal or development affecting Acton, the estimate would rise substantially.
t-0283
Context
Kalshi prices this at 19.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $213,382 on the busier venue. It closes in about 77 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
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