Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 3 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Nov 7, 28
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Settles Jan 21, 29
If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: JD Vance wins the 2028 US presidential election
Crossbook forecast
- 27.0%against a market price of 22.9% at the timeOpen
Logged 14 Aug 2026, 23:39 UTC
- Decomposition drives the estimate: P(Vance is GOP nominee) ~0.65-0.70 given sitting-VP advantage, youth, and apparent Trump backing, times P(GOP holds White House | nominee) ~0.40-0.45, blending the severe third-term penalty (1/9 historical) with the fact that most of those losses (1960, 1968, 2000) were near-coin-flips decided by fundamentals that are unknowable 815 days out.
- Signal: Vance's structural frontrunner status and the historical nomination lock for sitting VPs is real evidence; narrative: speculation about Trump's health, succession drama, or a 2024-style VP drag on the ticket is largely unpriced noise at this horizon, though the 2026 midterms (not yet held as of this date) will be the first hard data point on the incumbent-party penalty.
- My independent ~27% sits modestly above Polymarket's 22.9% and Kalshi's 19%; the gap plausibly reflects long-horizon liquidity discounts, the 4-point cross-venue spread signaling thin price discovery, and markets over-weighting colorful tail risks (Trump endorsing someone else, Vance's soft favorability) relative to base rates.
What would change it: A Republican wipeout in the November 2026 midterms paired with Trump pointedly withholding an endorsement or elevating a rival (Rubio, DeSantis) would push this estimate into the low teens.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 25% while Kalshi has it at 22%, a gap of 2.5 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $4,714 on the busier venue.
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