Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 12 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Oct 4, 26
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this…
Settles Oct 4, 27
If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on this one. Both price it near 89%, so there is no cross venue disagreement to trade and no basis to speak of.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $18,816 on the busier venue. It closes in about 25 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.