Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

TradingContract settles 4 Nov 2026Last checked 1 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-01T00:20:26.821Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

62.5%bid 62.0% / ask 63.0%24h volume $13K · liquidity $683Kas of 1 Oct, 00:20 UTCView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-01T00:20:29.036Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

62.5%bid 62.0% / ask 63.0%24h volume $202K · liquidity –as of 1 Oct, 00:20 UTCView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 3 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Nov 4, 26

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that…

Settles Feb 1, 27

If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement basis

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

This pair was once marked equivalent without the clauses that would show it, so it is shown as unverified until it is reviewed.

Confirmed as the same question: Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Crossbook forecast

No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.

Context

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $202,202 on the busier venue. It closes in about 34 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.