Will Darline Graham Nordone win Richland County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 87.0%against a market price of 93.5% at the timeYES
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 02:24 UTC · Brier 0.0169
- Outside view: runoff favorites leading after the first round win most of the time, but upsets in low-turnout special-election runoffs are not rare (10-20%), capping justified confidence below the market's 93.5%.
- Inside view is thin: I lack verified polling, first-round margins, or endorsement data for this specific Richland County race, so I anchor mostly on the reference class rather than case-specific signal; the fact that the question is framed around her suggests she is the perceived frontrunner, which is modest signal.
- Time-decay is minimal (3 days to close, election imminent), so late-scandal risk is compressed but not zero; low 24h volume ($7.2k) means the 93.5% price may partly reflect thin liquidity and informed local money rather than a robust consensus, plausibly explaining the gap to my estimate.
- My independent estimate sits a few points below the market because systematic base rates for heavy favorites argue against 93%+ absent confirmed polling dominance, which I cannot verify.
What would change it: A late-breaking endorsement reversal, scandal, or a verified poll showing her trailing would move this sharply; conversely, confirmed double-digit polling leads would push me toward the market's 93%+.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 97%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $2,694 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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