Fed rate odds
What Kalshi and Polymarket price for the next FOMC decision and every meeting after it, side by side and refreshed every five minutes. Where Crossbook has published a call, it sits on the chart at the moment it was made.
Next decision · December 2026 meeting
Hike 25 77%
The most likely decision, as the average of the venues that list it. Every venue’s own price is below.
Each bar is one venue’s price, as quoted. PM outcomes sum to 100% · KS outcomes sum to 105%. Prices from separate order books don’t have to add to exactly 100, and they aren’t adjusted here.
The last 45 days
The rate path
What the markets price for every meeting either venue lists, soonest first. Hover a row for the numbers.
- December ’26Hold 22Hike 25 77
- January ’27Hold 68Hike 25 29
- March ’27Hold 43Hike 25 50
- April ’27Hold 54Hike 25 27
- June ’27Hold 62Hike 25 34
- July ’27Hold 75Hike 25 22
- September ’27Hold 75Hike 25 25
- October ’27Hold 88
- December ’27Hold 66
- January ’28Hold 62
Cut 50+Cut 25HoldHike 25Hike 50+
Read Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:33 UTC. Venue prices, not Crossbook’s. Research and education only, not investment advice.
Fed markets with a Crossbook page
Most active
- Fed rate hike in 2026?PM 96%
Settled
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?PM 97%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?PM 11%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?PM 89%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?PM 2% · KS 3%
Every Crossbook forecast is timestamped before the answer is known and scored afterwards, whether it was right or not. See the public record and the rules.