US recession by end of 2027?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T19:20:29.046Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
31.0%bid 30.0% / ask 32.0%24h volume $4K · liquidity $18Kas of 29 Oct, 19:20 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T19:20:26.960Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
20.5%bid 20.0% / ask 21.0%24h volume $7Kas of 29 Oct, 19:20 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts name settlement dates 31 days apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.
Settles Dec 31, 27
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, thi…
Settles Jan 31, 28
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
Equivalent settlement terms · reviewed
Reviewed as equivalent: the clause from each venue that decides the outcome is quoted below, with the reviewer's reasoning and the date.
“This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product”
“Resolves Yes if there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis. For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.”
Nothing here differs.
Reviewed Oct 14, 26 under rules v1.4.
Confirmed as the same question: US recession by end of 2027?
Price, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 23.3%against a market price of 33.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
- The base rate for a recession onset in any given ~15-month window is about 18%, derived from 12 NBER recessions across 75 years; the resolution rule's alternative two-consecutive-negative-GDP trigger broadens this only slightly, since such episodes nearly always coincide with NBER recessions.
- Signal: the window is partly burned with no recession — Q1 2026 grew 2.5% and Q2 2026 grew 2.2%, so 2025 and H1 2026 are essentially resolved NO, and the effective remaining exposure is Q3 2026 through Q4 2027.
- Signal: current growth momentum is solidly positive; for YES, the earliest possible path now requires negative prints starting roughly Q4 2026, and sustained expansions growing at 2%+ rarely roll into contraction within one quarter absent a shock — this cuts the 18% base meaningfully.
- Narrative to discount: none of the retrieved facts document financial stress, yield-curve inversion, or labor deterioration, so there is no case-specific reason to price above base rate; equally, no facts justify pricing near zero, since recessions often arrive with little advance warning inside a 14-month window.
- The Q3 2026 advance estimate on Oct 29, 2026 is the next hard information point; a negative print would roughly double or triple this probability, a solid positive print would shave it further.
What would change it: A negative Q3 or Q4 2026 GDP print (starting with the Oct 29 advance estimate) or an abrupt financial/geopolitical shock would push the estimate well above 25%; conversely, continued >2% growth through mid-2027 would compress it toward 3–5%.
t-0248
Context
Polymarket prices this at 31.0% while Kalshi has it at 20.5%, a gap of 10.5 points on the same question. A gap that wide usually means the two contracts are not asking quite the same thing, so the settlement terms below are the first thing to check.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $6,633 on the busier venue.
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