Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
4.3%bid 3.5% / ask 5.0%24h volume – · liquidity $15Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:30.771Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
8.3%bid 7.1% / ask 9.5%24h volume $106as of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
Settles Jan 1, 27
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Settles Jan 1, 27
If Sean Combs has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Equivalent settlement terms · reviewed
Reviewed as equivalent: the clause from each venue that decides the outcome is quoted below, with the reviewer's reasoning and the date.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.”
“Resolves Yes if Sean Combs has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027. Outcome verified from White House and New York Times.”
Nothing differs here.
Reviewed Oct 14, 26 under rules v1.4.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
Price, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Kalshi prices this at 8.3% while Polymarket has it at 4.3%, a gap of 4.0 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $106 on the busier venue. It closes in about 63 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.