Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
Settles Nov 7, 28
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Settles Nov 7, 28
If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 50% while Kalshi has it at 45%, a gap of 5.2 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $5,285 on the busier venue.
Related markets
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.