Jensen Huang divorce by March 31, 2027?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-15T02:30:27.131Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
26.5%bid 26.0% / ask 27.0%24h volume $16K · liquidity $71Kas of 15 Nov, 02:30 UTCView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 20.8%against a market price of 33.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 12 Nov 2026, 01:58 UTC
- Infidelity has been publicly confirmed, which puts this case squarely in the at-risk reference class rather than the general married-population base rate (near-zero 5-month divorce rate).
- However, Huang's statement was an apology expressing hope that the family would heal — an expressed intent to reconcile, not to separate; this is signal pointing below the class base rate.
- The couple is reported still married as of November 11, with only 'speculation' about divorce — no filing and no definitive announcement has occurred, and the resolution rule requires a definitive intention, not mere consideration.
- Time decay is material: only ~140 days remain, and divorce announcements following a scandal usually take many months to materialize, so much of the at-risk probability mass falls outside this market's window.
What would change it: A credible report that Lori Huang has retained divorce counsel or that either party has filed or privately communicated a definitive intent to divorce would sharply raise my estimate.
t-0303
Polymarket prices this at 26.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $15,752 on the busier venue.
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