Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T21:45:26.996Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
3.9%bid 3.8% / ask 4.0%24h volume $34K · liquidity $779Kas of 29 Oct, 21:45 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T21:40:30.719Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
4.7%bid 4.6% / ask 4.7%24h volume $10Kas of 29 Oct, 21:40 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
Settles Jan 1, 27
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Settles Jan 1, 27
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement equivalence unverified
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Price, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $33,836 on the busier venue. It closes in about 63 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.