Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Not comparable · no gap ranked. No eligible price gap is available.
Polymarket requires an official announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; Kalshi asks whether Turner is cast before January 1, 2030. These are different event deadlines and outcome definitions, not an administrative settlement delay.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
21.9%bid 21.2% / ask 22.6%24h volume $7K · liquidity $6Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:26.793Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
31.0%bid 28.0% / ask 34.0%24h volume $4Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts name settlement dates about 3 years apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.
Settles Jan 1, 27
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be…
Settles Jan 1, 30
If Callum Turner is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Not comparable · no gap ranked
These contracts do not settle on the same terms. The price difference is not a like for like comparison and should not be read as one.
Confirmed as the same question: Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
Price, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Not comparable · no gap ranked. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $6,560 on the busier venue. It closes in about 63 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.