Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Logged 21 Sept 2026, 21:19 UTC

• The base rate for a 25 bp hike at any single FOMC meeting is low (~18%), since holds dominate the historical distribution of meeting outcomes.
• The September 16, 2026 hike to 3.75%–4.00% signals the Fed is currently in a tightening posture, and hikes cluster: conditional on the prior meeting being a hike, the probability of a follow-on hike rises well above the unconditional base rate (as in the 2022–23 cycle).
• However, a single September hike does not establish a hiking cycle; it could be a one-off recalibration, and even in active tightening phases the Fed has often paused at alternating meetings, so the uplift from the base rate should be moderate rather than large.
• The retrieved facts contain no inflation, employment, or Fed communications data for the inter-meeting period, so the estimate leans heavily on the prior-meeting-hike conditional pattern rather than on macro signal.

What would change it: A string of Fed speaker comments or September/October CPI and payroll prints showing cooling inflation would indicate the September hike was a one-off and push the probability of an October hike down toward the unconditional base rate.

-7.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Across the modern FOMC era (roughly 1990–2025), a 25 bp hike has occurred at roughly 15–20% of scheduled meetings, with most meetings resolving to no change; no retrieved fact establishes this rate, so it rests on general knowledge of the class.

Formed blind at 34.0%; published at 45.0% after the reconcile step moved it toward the market. The September hike [f1] is fully public and the market has priced the same hike-clustering logic the blind estimate used; with no dated macro or Fed-communication fact the market lacks, I cannot justify the 18.5-point gap, but the absence of any confirming inter-meeting data keeps me below the market.