Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T04:55:28.893Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
45.5%bid 45.0% / ask 46.0%24h volume $628K · liquidity $880Kas of 9 Sept, 04:55 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 68.0%against a market price of 46.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:38 UTC
- The Fed has held the target range at 3.50-3.75% continuously for all of 2026 through mid-July, a strong revealed preference for inaction that typically persists absent a new shock (cites f1, f3)
- PCE inflation at 4.1% y/y is well above target, which makes a rate cut at this meeting very unlikely; the realistic alternatives are hold vs. hike (cites f5)
- Despite inflation running near 4%, the Fed has already chosen not to hike for 8+ months, suggesting either tolerance of current inflation or expectation it will fall, both of which favor another hold (cites f3, f5)
- Unemployment at 4.2% is not signaling labor-market distress, removing the most common trigger for an unexpected inter-meeting or meeting cut (cites f4)
- Residual risk: with inflation this elevated, a hawkish surprise hike is a live tail risk, capping the no-change probability well below 90%
What would change it: Credible reporting or Fed communications in the final week (e.g., WSJ Fed whisperer, hawkish speeches) indicating the committee is actively debating a 25bp hike would push this down substantially.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 45.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $627,715 on the busier venue. It closes in 7 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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