Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 23.0%against a market price of 28.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 18 Aug 2026, 02:50 UTC
- Hikes are structurally rare events: the Fed holds or cuts far more often than it raises rates, and a hike requires either an ongoing tightening cycle or a clear inflation resurgence — without evidence of an active 2026 hiking cycle, the base rate anchors this well below 50%.
- My independent read lands a few points below the market's 28.5%; the modest premium over the pure base rate is justified because the market is pricing meaningful tail risk of sticky or reaccelerating 2026 inflation, and $600k daily volume suggests informed flow rather than noise — the divergence is plausibly explained by my lack of visibility into mid-2026 macro data rather than market mispricing.
- With ~29 days to the meeting, one CPI print and one jobs report remain before the decision, so substantial probability mass sits on data surprises in either direction; this compresses my confidence but argues against extreme estimates either way.
What would change it: A hot August CPI print (core above ~0.3% m/m) or explicit hawkish Fed communications signaling a September hike would push this well above 40%.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 53%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $306,089 on the busier venue. It closes in 7 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.