Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

• 4.0%against a market price of 53.5% at the timeYES

  Logged 9 Sept 2026, 19:41 UTC · Brier 0.9216

  • The FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% as of late July 2026, and there is no evidence of a tightening cycle underway heading into September.
  • The June 2026 SEP median projection of 3.8% for end-2026 implies officials expected rates to be roughly unchanged from the current 3.75% upper bound through year-end, leaving little room for a September hike in the baseline.
  • With the meeting on September 15-16 and only 6 days until resolution, any repricing toward a hike would likely already be visible in communications; no facts indicate hawkish momentum.
  • Residual risk: an upside inflation surprise or hawkish pivot between late July and the meeting could produce a hike, but the SEP and the hold in July argue the modal outcomes are hold or cut, not hike.

  What would change it: Evidence of a material upside inflation surprise or explicit Fed signaling of a hike between the July meeting and September 16 would sharply raise this estimate.

  Settlement sourcet-0189
• 23.0%against a market price of 28.5% at the timeYES

  Logged 18 Aug 2026, 02:50 UTC · Brier 0.5929

  • Hikes are structurally rare events: the Fed holds or cuts far more often than it raises rates, and a hike requires either an ongoing tightening cycle or a clear inflation resurgence — without evidence of an active 2026 hiking cycle, the base rate anchors this well below 50%.
  • My independent read lands a few points below the market's 28.5%; the modest premium over the pure base rate is justified because the market is pricing meaningful tail risk of sticky or reaccelerating 2026 inflation, and $600k daily volume suggests informed flow rather than noise — the divergence is plausibly explained by my lack of visibility into mid-2026 macro data rather than market mispricing.
  • With ~29 days to the meeting, one CPI print and one jobs report remain before the decision, so substantial probability mass sits on data surprises in either direction; this compresses my confidence but argues against extreme estimates either way.

  What would change it: A hot August CPI print (core above ~0.3% m/m) or explicit hawkish Fed communications signaling a September hike would push this well above 40%.

  Settlement sourcet-0030

Context

Polymarket prices this at 88.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $3,982,382 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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