Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T04:55:28.893Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
2.8%bid 2.7% / ask 3.0%24h volume $47K · liquidity $51Kas of 9 Sept, 04:55 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 10.0%against a market price of 2.8% at the timeOpen
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:54 UTC
- The Bank of Russia is in an active easing cycle: it cut the key rate by 25bp to 14.00% on 24 July 2026 [f1, f2], and cutting cycles are almost never reversed at the very next meeting.
- The Bank's own baseline scenario projects an average 2026 key rate of 14.5–14.6% [f5]; given the rate now sits at 14.00% [f1], that math is consistent with holding (or cutting further) for the rest of the year, not hiking, which would push the realized average above their published baseline.
- Disinflationary signals support the easing stance: household one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 13.7% in August from 14.7% in July [f4], reducing pressure for a hawkish surprise.
- Residual risk of a hike comes from unobserved factors (ruble depreciation, an inflation print between July and the meeting, or geopolitical/budget shocks) that the retrieved facts do not cover; this uncertainty justifies a non-trivial tail probability rather than ~1–2%.
- Time-decay is minimal but favorable for a hold: the meeting is on 11 September [f3], only two days away, leaving almost no window for a regime-changing shock.
What would change it: Evidence of a sharp ruble sell-off or an upside inflation surprise in late August/early September 2026 that forced the Bank of Russia to signal a hawkish pivot before the meeting.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 2.8%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $47,138 on the busier venue. It closes in 3 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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