Fed rate hike in 2026?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 63.0%against a market price of 70.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 7 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC
- Outside view: late-cycle resumption of hikes after a 9+ month hold is historically uncommon, capping the estimate well below certainty despite hawkish signals [f2].
- Strong inside-view hawkish evidence: the June 2026 dot plot median implies at least one hike by year-end and 9 of 18 participants penciled one in; three FOMC members already dissented for a hike in July [f6, f7, f3].
- The sitting Fed Chair (Warsh) publicly flagged that inflation trends have not meaningfully improved and the Fed may have 'work to do' at Jackson Hole — chairs rarely signal this way without follow-through, and FedWatch moved to ~55.7% for a September hike [f8, f9].
- Inflation remains well above target (PCE 3.7%, headline CPI 3.4%) and the August jobs report beat with positive revisions, both supporting the hike case [f10, f11, f12].
- Dovish counterweight: core CPI is only 2.5% y/y and Governor Waller favors patience in September; a 9-3 hold vote in July shows a hike was still the minority position then [f11, f13, f3].
- Three remaining meetings (Sept 16, Oct 27-28, Dec 8-9) mean the YES side gets multiple draws; even if September holds, elevated inflation keeps October/December live, so cumulative probability exceeds the ~56% September-only pricing [f4, f5].
- Key swing factor is the August CPI release on September 11, five days before the FOMC decision — a soft print likely produces a September hold and materially lowers the path to YES [f14].
What would change it: A soft August CPI print on September 11 followed by a September hold and dovish Warsh press conference would drop this estimate to roughly 0.35-0.40, since October/December hikes after a September hold are historically rare.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 71%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $2,627 on the busier venue.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.