Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 17 2026?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 71.0%against a market price of 77.5% at the timeNONOT SCORED
Logged 18 Aug 2026, 02:41 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Signal: with only ~3 trading days left, the question reduces to whether PLTR's intraday low dips to $168 this week; PLTR's elevated realized volatility makes modest pullbacks within a week common, supporting a majority-probability YES.
- Signal: the 77.5% market price implies spot is likely a few percent above $168 (not at or below it, which would make this near-certain, nor far above, which would price lower); my independent estimate of ~71% sits slightly below market, a divergence plausibly explained by the very thin $1,250 volume making the price noisy and possibly momentum-chased.
- Narrative risk to flag: PLTR is a retail-momentum favorite prone to both sharp rallies and sharp mean-reverting drops; either regime shift (AI-sector selloff or a melt-up away from the strike) could move this substantially in either direction, hence low confidence.
What would change it: If I learned PLTR's actual current price were more than ~6-8% above $168 (e.g., >$180), my estimate would drop toward 40-50%; if it were already at or below $168, it would rise toward 95%+.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 4%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $357 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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