Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.
Crossbook forecast
- 94.0%against a market price of 99.1% at the timeOpen
Logged 2 Sept 2026, 12:48 UTC
- My knowledge ends well before September 2026, so I cannot independently verify the inflation path, OIS pricing, or ECB forward guidance; my estimate rests almost entirely on the outside view that well-telegraphed ECB decisions this close to the meeting are rarely surprises (the ECB in particular prizes predictability and 'effective communication' of its reaction function).
- The meaningful tail risk is concentrated in the final week: an inflation print surprise, energy/geopolitical shock, or a sudden shift in Governing Council signaling could produce a hold, a 50 bps move, or a pause — historically these tail events occur perhaps 3–8% of the time even when a move is near-fully priced a week out.
- The market price of 99.1% is above my 94% independent estimate; the divergence is plausibly explained by traders having real-time access to September 2026 OIS pricing, ECB speakers' pre-blackout commentary, and the August inflation print — information I structurally lack — so I treat the gap as a signal of my ignorance rather than clear market overconfidence, but I still shave a few points off 99% to account for genuinely unforecastable last-week shocks.
What would change it: A late-breaking inflation or energy shock in early September 2026 causing the ECB to hold or move by a different increment than 25 bps, announced in the September 9–10 statement.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 99%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $2,980 on the busier venue. It closes in 2 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.