Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:38 UTC · Brier 0.4624

• The Fed has held the target range at 3.50-3.75% continuously for all of 2026 through mid-July, a strong revealed preference for inaction that typically persists absent a new shock (cites f1, f3)
• PCE inflation at 4.1% y/y is well above target, which makes a rate cut at this meeting very unlikely; the realistic alternatives are hold vs. hike (cites f5)
• Despite inflation running near 4%, the Fed has already chosen not to hike for 8+ months, suggesting either tolerance of current inflation or expectation it will fall, both of which favor another hold (cites f3, f5)
• Unemployment at 4.2% is not signaling labor-market distress, removing the most common trigger for an unexpected inter-meeting or meeting cut (cites f4)
• Residual risk: with inflation this elevated, a hawkish surprise hike is a live tail risk, capping the no-change probability well below 90%

What would change it: Credible reporting or Fed communications in the final week (e.g., WSJ Fed whisperer, hawkish speeches) indicating the committee is actively debating a 25bp hike would push this down substantially.

+21.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Historically, roughly two-thirds of FOMC meetings end with no change to the target range, though changes cluster in active tightening or easing cycles.