Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

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Settlement basis

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Confirmed as the same question: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Crossbook forecast

• 45.0%against a market price of 52.5% at the timeOpen

  Logged 21 Sept 2026, 21:19 UTC

  • The base rate for a 25 bp hike at any single FOMC meeting is low (~18%), since holds dominate the historical distribution of meeting outcomes.
  • The September 16, 2026 hike to 3.75%–4.00% signals the Fed is currently in a tightening posture, and hikes cluster: conditional on the prior meeting being a hike, the probability of a follow-on hike rises well above the unconditional base rate (as in the 2022–23 cycle).
  • However, a single September hike does not establish a hiking cycle; it could be a one-off recalibration, and even in active tightening phases the Fed has often paused at alternating meetings, so the uplift from the base rate should be moderate rather than large.
  • The retrieved facts contain no inflation, employment, or Fed communications data for the inter-meeting period, so the estimate leans heavily on the prior-meeting-hike conditional pattern rather than on macro signal.

  What would change it: A string of Fed speaker comments or September/October CPI and payroll prints showing cooling inflation would indicate the September hike was a one-off and push the probability of an October hike down toward the unconditional base rate.

  t-0212

Context

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $707,926 on the busier venue. It closes in about 28 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.

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