Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-28T18:00:32.948Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
97.4%bid 97.3% / ask 97.4%24h volume $5.2M · liquidity $88Kas of 28 Oct, 18:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 80.3%against a market price of 94.5% at the timeYES
Logged 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Brier 0.0390
- The base rate favors no change: the Fed adjusts rates at well under half of its meetings, and holds are the default outcome even in active policy cycles.
- The upper bound stands at 4.00% as of October 24, 2026, well below the 5.25-5.50% peak, indicating the Fed has already been cutting; easing cycles typically alternate cuts with pauses, so the marginal meeting after cuts leans hold.
- The meeting is a standard two-day October 27-28 meeting followed by a December 8-9 meeting; October meetings historically see action less often than the 'live' quarter-end meetings with fresh Summary of Economic Projections, slightly favoring a hold here.
- Countervailing risk: if the easing cycle is active and data-dependent, a cut is the most likely move if any; hikes are very unlikely given the trajectory implied by the 4.00% level, so the no-change probability competes mainly against a 25bp cut.
What would change it: A surprise inflation flare-up or sharp labor-market deterioration reported before October 27 would shift the odds decisively toward a move (hike or accelerated cut) and away from no change.
Settlement sourcet-0273
Context
Polymarket prices this at 97.4%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $5,215,509 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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