Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T04:55:28.893Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
85.0%bid 83.0% / ask 87.0%24h volume $9K · liquidity $3Kas of 9 Sept, 04:55 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 72.0%against a market price of 82.0% at the timeOpen
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:58 UTC
Observed at the time: ETH spot $2,489, per CoinGecko, 9 Sept 2026, 03:58 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.
- ETH was trading around $2,486-$2,488 on September 8-9, 2026, giving a cushion of about $86 (3.5%) above the $2,400 strike (cites: f1, f2)
- With ~2.5 days until the noon ET September 11 resolution candle, ETH's realized daily volatility (typically 3-4%) implies a one-standard-deviation move of roughly 5-6% over the horizon, so the strike sits about 0.6-0.7 standard deviations below spot (cites: f1, f2)
- The resolution is a single 1-minute Binance candle close, which adds minor microstructure noise relative to a daily close, slightly widening the effective outcome distribution
- The retrieved facts give only a spot level with no trend, positioning, or volatility data, so I cannot adjust away from a driftless random-walk assumption in either direction
What would change it: A sharp ETH selloff of more than ~4% over the next two days, e.g., driven by a broad risk-off move or crypto-specific negative catalyst, would flip this market toward NO.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 85.0%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $9,101 on the busier venue. It closes in 2 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.