Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-12T01:20:27.028Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
0.7%bid 0.3% / ask 1.0%24h volume $32K · liquidity $37Kas of 12 Oct, 01:20 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 24.8%against a market price of 10.5% at the timeNO
Logged 9 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC · Brier 0.0613
Observed at the time: BTC spot $82,554, per CoinGecko, 9 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.
- The market needs only one Binance 1-minute candle low at or below $80,000 during Oct 5-11, so wicks count rather than closes; the weekly low through Oct 9 of $80,394 implies no qualifying print had occurred yet, leaving only part of Oct 9 plus Oct 10-11.
- The Oct 8 daily low of $80,336.91 shows sellers already probed within about $337 of the barrier, which is signal for elevated tail/wick risk into the same zone.
- The higher Oct 9 daily low of $81,602.41 is counter-signal: the immediate test did not continue downward on Oct 9, suggesting some bounce or absorption after the near-miss.
- Weekend 24/7 trading and thinner liquidity can produce brief 1-minute spikes, but the missing current price and missing complete minute-level history keep this from justifying a high estimate.
What would change it: A verified Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute low at or below $80,000 before 11:59 PM ET Oct 11 would immediately make this YES; absent that, a strong move away from $80,394 would sharply reduce it.
Settlement sourcet-0234
Polymarket prices this at 0.7%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $32,049 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.