Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 11?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has no two-sided book right now, so there is no price to show. The contract is still listed; nobody is quoting both sides of it.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-11T15:05:27.948Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume $55K · liquidity $24Kas of 11 Sept, 15:05 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:58 UTC · Brier 0.0784
Observed at the time: ETH spot $2,489, per CoinGecko, 9 Sept 2026, 03:58 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.
- ETH was trading around $2,486-$2,488 on September 8-9, 2026, giving a cushion of about $86 (3.5%) above the $2,400 strike
- With ~2.5 days until the noon ET September 11 resolution candle, ETH's realized daily volatility (typically 3-4%) implies a one-standard-deviation move of roughly 5-6% over the horizon, so the strike sits about 0.6-0.7 standard deviations below spot
- The resolution is a single 1-minute Binance candle close, which adds minor microstructure noise relative to a daily close, slightly widening the effective outcome distribution
- The retrieved facts give only a spot level with no trend, positioning, or volatility data, so I cannot adjust away from a driftless random-walk assumption in either direction
What would change it: A sharp ETH selloff of more than ~4% over the next two days, e.g., driven by a broad risk-off move or crypto-specific negative catalyst, would flip this market toward NO.
Settlement source-10.0 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: For a crypto asset sitting ~3.5% above a strike with ~2.5 days to expiry, a driftless lognormal with ETH's typical ~60-75% annualized volatility implies roughly a 70-75% chance of finishing above the strike.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
YESsettled 15 Sept 2026, 01:34 UTC · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:34 UTC · entered by handsettlement
What this call was reading
- The reported ETH/USDT price on Binance US was $2,485.65 on September 8, 2026. as of 2026-09-08 · binance.us · within 90 days of this call
- The reported ETH/USD price was $2,487.86 on September 9, 2026. as of 2026-09-09 · investing.com · within 90 days of this call
Polymarket prices this at unavailable. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $55,173 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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This call is line t-0188 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.