Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 26?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 90.0%against a market price of 96.0% at the timeYES
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 14:59 UTC · Brier 0.0100
Observed at the time: BTC spot $77,156, per CoinGecko, 23 Aug 2026, 14:59 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.
- Outside view: a 6.7% adverse move in 3 days is about a 1.3-sigma event at typical BTC vol, implying ~9% probability of breach under a normal approximation; fat tails and weekend/low-liquidity gaps push this toward 10–12%.
- Inside view: no specific catalyst (macro prints, ETF flow shocks, exchange stress) is flagged in the next 3 days, but this is largely narrative absence rather than positive signal; crypto tail risk is ever-present and a single Binance 1-minute noon-ET close can wick on thin liquidity, adding a small settlement-mechanics risk premium.
- The market's 96% implies only ~4% breach odds, richer than my ~10%; the divergence is plausibly explained by very thin volume ($622) allowing stale or momentum-anchored pricing rather than informed flow, though it could also reflect lower realized vol in 2026 that I cannot observe.
What would change it: A sharp risk-off catalyst (e.g., a >3% single-day BTC selloff or breaking macro/regulatory shock) before August 26 that pushes spot toward $74k would substantially raise the probability of a NO resolution.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 99%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $17,871 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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