Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 40.0%against a market price of 36.4% at the timeYES
Logged 24 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC · Brier 0.3600
Observed at the time: BTC spot $79,087, per CoinGecko, 24 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.
- Outside view: the strike is barely out of the money (~$913 gap); with 3-day volatility of ~4%, the z-score is only ~0.27, so this is close to a coin flip tilted slightly toward NO because spot is below strike.
- Signal: short-horizon BTC moves are dominated by noise and flow, not narrative; the modest distance to the strike means a single ~1.2% rally day (very common) flips this to YES, which supports a probability near 40% rather than far lower.
- The market price of 36.4% is ~4 points below my estimate; the divergence is plausibly explained by thin volume ($3.5k) and NO-side anchoring on the round $80k resistance level rather than superior information.
What would change it: A sharp risk-off move in the next 24–48 hours pushing BTC below roughly $76,000 would drop the probability into the low teens, as the required rally would then exceed typical 3-day volatility.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 94%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $230,633 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.