Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 24-30?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 46.0%against a market price of 42.5% at the timeNO
Logged 28 Aug 2026, 03:57 UTC · Brier 0.2116
Observed at the time: BTC spot $79,841, per CoinGecko, 28 Aug 2026, 03:56 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.
- Window math: the Aug 24–30 range is mostly elapsed; since the market is not already resolved YES, BTC did not print ≥$82k on Binance during Aug 24–27, so this reduces to a ~2.8-day touch problem from ~$79.8k (needs +2.7%).
- Signal: barrier distance (~2.7%) is well within one daily standard deviation of typical BTC vol, giving a raw touch probability near 0.50; Binance settlement on the 1-minute high is slightly favorable vs. close-based settlement since wicks count.
- Adjustments (signal, modest): remaining window is Friday–Sunday, and weekend BTC liquidity/volatility tends to run lower; $82k round-number resistance and the fact that price already failed to tag it earlier in the week both argue slightly down — landing near 0.46, close to the market's 42.5%, with no large divergence to explain.
What would change it: A weekend volatility collapse (realized vol below ~2% daily) or a drop below ~$78k would push the touch probability under 30%.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 1%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $50,249 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.