Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 82.0%against a market price of 88.5% at the timeYES
Logged 21 Aug 2026, 22:49 UTC · Brier 0.0324
- The 88.5% market price implies BTC is trading only a few percent above $74k; with 4 days to expiry, a single -5% drawdown (a common occurrence, historically several times per quarter) would flip the resolution, so true probability is likely below the quoted figure.
- Signal: short time-decay strongly favors YES — 4 days limits the window for a large adverse move, and no known macro catalysts (FOMC, CPI) are flagged in the prompt, though weekend/late-August liquidity can amplify moves.
- Narrative risk: the $2,949 24h volume is extremely thin, so the 88.5% price is noisy and possibly stale; the small downward divergence in my estimate (0.82 vs 0.885) is plausibly explained by thin-market overconfidence plus round-number anchoring near the strike rather than genuine information.
What would change it: A sharp risk-off move in the next 1–2 days (e.g., macro shock or crypto-specific liquidation cascade) pushing spot within ~2% of $74k would materially lower this estimate.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 99%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $58,914 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.