Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-08-27T15:55:05.587Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
94.1%bid 93.4% / ask 94.8%24h volume $231K · liquidity $10Kas of 27 Aug, 15:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 24 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC · Brier 0.3600
Observed at the time: BTC spot $79,087, per CoinGecko, 24 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.
- Outside view: the strike is barely out of the money (~$913 gap); with 3-day volatility of ~4%, the z-score is only ~0.27, so this is close to a coin flip tilted slightly toward NO because spot is below strike.
- Signal: short-horizon BTC moves are dominated by noise and flow, not narrative; the modest distance to the strike means a single ~1.2% rally day (very common) flips this to YES, which supports a probability near 40% rather than far lower.
- The market price of 36.4% is ~4 points below my estimate; the divergence is plausibly explained by thin volume ($3.5k) and NO-side anchoring on the round $80k resistance level rather than superior information.
What would change it: A sharp risk-off move in the next 24–48 hours pushing BTC below roughly $76,000 would drop the probability into the low teens, as the required rally would then exceed typical 3-day volatility.
Settlement source+3.6 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: For a 3-day horizon with BTC at ~1.15% below the strike and typical realized daily volatility of 2–3%, a driftless lognormal model gives roughly a 39–42% chance of finishing above the strike.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
YESsettled 28 Aug 2026, 03:20 UTC · recorded 28 Aug 2026, 03:20 UTC · entered by handsettlement
Polymarket prices this at 94.1%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $230,633 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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