Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-08-25T00:40:34.808Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
99.4%bid 99.2% / ask 99.5%24h volume $59K · liquidity $35Kas of 25 Aug, 00:40 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 21 Aug 2026, 22:49 UTC · Brier 0.0324
- The 88.5% market price implies BTC is trading only a few percent above $74k; with 4 days to expiry, a single -5% drawdown (a common occurrence, historically several times per quarter) would flip the resolution, so true probability is likely below the quoted figure.
- Signal: short time-decay strongly favors YES — 4 days limits the window for a large adverse move, and no known macro catalysts (FOMC, CPI) are flagged in the prompt, though weekend/late-August liquidity can amplify moves.
- Narrative risk: the $2,949 24h volume is extremely thin, so the 88.5% price is noisy and possibly stale; the small downward divergence in my estimate (0.82 vs 0.885) is plausibly explained by thin-market overconfidence plus round-number anchoring near the strike rather than genuine information.
What would change it: A sharp risk-off move in the next 1–2 days (e.g., macro shock or crypto-specific liquidation cascade) pushing spot within ~2% of $74k would materially lower this estimate.
Settlement source-6.6 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: For a 4-day window, an asset with Bitcoin's realized vol (~2.5–3.5% daily) trading modestly above a strike stays above it roughly 75–85% of the time, per log-normal barrier math.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
YESsettled 26 Aug 2026, 16:43 UTC · recorded 26 Aug 2026, 16:43 UTC · entered by handsettlement
Polymarket prices this at 99.4%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $58,914 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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