Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?

Thesis

• The Bank of Russia is in an active easing cycle: it cut the key rate by 25bp to 14.00% on 24 July 2026 [f1, f2], and cutting cycles are almost never reversed at the very next meeting.
• The Bank's own baseline scenario projects an average 2026 key rate of 14.5–14.6% [f5]; given the rate now sits at 14.00% [f1], that math is consistent with holding (or cutting further) for the rest of the year, not hiking, which would push the realized average above their published baseline.
• Disinflationary signals support the easing stance: household one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 13.7% in August from 14.7% in July [f4], reducing pressure for a hawkish surprise.
• Residual risk of a hike comes from unobserved factors (ruble depreciation, an inflation print between July and the meeting, or geopolitical/budget shocks) that the retrieved facts do not cover; this uncertainty justifies a non-trivial tail probability rather than ~1–2%.
• Time-decay is minimal but favorable for a hold: the meeting is on 11 September [f3], only two days away, leaving almost no window for a regime-changing shock.

Base rate

Central banks that have just started a cutting cycle very rarely reverse to a hike within one or two meetings; historically such immediate reversals occur in well under 15% of cases absent a major shock.

What would prove this wrong

Evidence of a sharp ruble sell-off or an upside inflation surprise in late August/early September 2026 that forced the Bank of Russia to signal a hawkish pivot before the meeting.

Settlement

Resolved NO on 15 Sept 2026 · settlement source

What this call was reading

• The Bank of Russia’s key rate is 14.00% per annum from 27 July 2026. as of 2026-07-27 · cbr.ru · within 90 days of this call
• On 24 July 2026, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum. as of 2026-07-24 · cbr.ru · within 90 days of this call
• The Bank of Russia’s baseline scenario projects an average key rate of 14.5–14.6% per annum in 2026. as of 2026-07-24 · cbr.ru · within 90 days of this call
• Household one-year-ahead inflation expectations were 13.7% in August 2026, down from 14.7% in July 2026. as of 2026-08-31 · cbr.ru · within 90 days of this call
• The Bank of Russia’s next key-rate meeting is scheduled for 11 September 2026. as of 2026-07-24 · cbr.ru · within 90 days of this call