Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
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This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 10.0%against a market price of 16.5% at the timeNO
Logged 12 Aug 2026, 15:44 UTC · Brier 0.0100
- Outside view: daily-resolution attack markets on a low-frequency, clustered event resolve NO the large majority of days; even during active campaigns strikes were episodic, not daily.
- Signal: no indication of an ongoing multi-day attack campaign as of mid-August 2026; the Red Sea has seen extended quiet periods punctuated by rare high-profile sinkings, and traffic remains largely rerouted, reducing target availability.
- Market at 16.5% on only $133 volume likely reflects thin liquidity, headline-risk premium and generic yes-bias rather than concrete intelligence; I sit modestly below it while allowing for loose resolution criteria (e.g., counting drone/missile launches or claimed targeting) that could inflate YES odds.
What would change it: Credible reports of a fresh Houthi missile/drone/USV strike or hijacking against a vessel in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden on or immediately before August 13, 2026 would push this sharply toward YES.
Settlement source
Context
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