Cincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 74.0%against a market price of 77.5% at the timeYESNOT SCORED
Logged 14 Aug 2026, 21:13 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Reference class: moderately strong ATP favorite; closing tennis lines at ~75–80% implied are historically efficient, so large deviations from the market require fresh information I don't have for a 2026 date.
- Inside view (dated priors, treat as weak signal): Borges profiles as the more durable, higher-floor, consistent baseliner, while Kokkinakis carries elevated variance and injury/withdrawal risk — directionally supporting Borges as favorite, but fast Cincinnati hard courts plus tiebreak risk give the big-serving underdog extra upset equity, shading me slightly below the market.
- Signal vs narrative + price check: the $830k volume and 77.5% price are real signal in an efficient market; my ~3.5-point divergence below it is plausibly explained by stale player information and a small hard-court variance adjustment rather than any edge.
- Time decay over 6 days: the main residual risk is pre-match news (injury, illness, fatigue, withdrawal), which can swing tennis lines sharply and argues for humility rather than conviction.
What would change it: A credible report in the next 6 days of a Borges injury/illness or a Kokkinakis form surge would move me materially toward or past the market price.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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