Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 14.0%against a market price of 7.5% at the timeVOIDNOT SCORED
Logged 18 Aug 2026, 02:46 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Lehecka and Fils are both fringe top-20 hard-court players, and their historical head-to-head and Elo profiles do not obviously support a 92.5% favorite, so the 7.5% market price implies case-specific information (form, minor injury, or fatigue from the prior week in Toronto/Cincinnati scheduling) that I cannot verify.
- Tennis markets with $700k+ volume six days pre-match are usually efficient but still tend to overprice favorites slightly; underdogs at <10% in matches between peers historically overperform their price by several points.
- My independent estimate absent private form/injury data is ~12-16%; the divergence from the market's 7.5% plausibly reflects real recent-form or fitness information rather than noise, which is why I shade down rather than moving fully to base rate.
What would change it: Confirmed news of a Lehecka injury, illness, or late withdrawal risk (or a dominant recent Fils hard-court run) would justify the market price and push my estimate toward 6-8%.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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