Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 52.0%against a market price of 56.5% at the timeNO
Logged 10 Aug 2026, 17:57 UTC · Brier 0.2704
- Outside view: totals are efficiently priced; a 7.5 line implies near-coinflip, with unders slightly favored historically due to scoring distribution skew.
- Inside-view adjustment: Rogers Centre with both Boston and Toronto fielding above-average offenses in 2026 nudges the over marginally; sportsbooks pricing 7.5 rather than 8.5 suggests decent pitching matchup.
- Market at 56.5% is modestly above my estimate — plausible causes are thin liquidity ($352 volume), an over-lean from public bettors, or the line being effectively 7.5-under-juiced; not enough signal to move far.
What would change it: Confirmation of starting pitchers/weather (e.g., strong aces or a cold, wind-in game vs. bullpen games and wind-out) would shift this several points in either direction.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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