The record · t-0004
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
Logged 12 Aug 2026, 15:44 UTC · polymarket · Contract settles 13 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
crossbook
10.0%
low confidence
market at generation
16.5%
12 Aug 2026, 15:44 UTC
edge
-6.5 pts
probability points, not basis points
outcome
NO
brier 0.0100
Thesis
- Outside view: daily-resolution attack markets on a low-frequency, clustered event resolve NO the large majority of days; even during active campaigns strikes were episodic, not daily.
- Signal: no indication of an ongoing multi-day attack campaign as of mid-August 2026; the Red Sea has seen extended quiet periods punctuated by rare high-profile sinkings, and traffic remains largely rerouted, reducing target availability.
- Market at 16.5% on only $133 volume likely reflects thin liquidity, headline-risk premium and generic yes-bias rather than concrete intelligence; I sit modestly below it while allowing for loose resolution criteria (e.g., counting drone/missile launches or claimed targeting) that could inflate YES odds.
Base rate
Across 2025–2026, Houthi successful attacks on shipping have been sporadic clusters separated by months-long lulls, implying well under 10% of individual days feature a confirmed successful strike.
What would prove this wrong
Credible reports of a fresh Houthi missile/drone/USV strike or hijacking against a vessel in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden on or immediately before August 13, 2026 would push this sharply toward YES.
Settlement
Resolved NO on 14 Aug 2026 · settlement source
This call is line t-0004 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.