Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
Logged 12 Aug 2026, 15:44 UTC · Brier 0.0100
- Outside view: daily-resolution attack markets on a low-frequency, clustered event resolve NO the large majority of days; even during active campaigns strikes were episodic, not daily.
- Signal: no indication of an ongoing multi-day attack campaign as of mid-August 2026; the Red Sea has seen extended quiet periods punctuated by rare high-profile sinkings, and traffic remains largely rerouted, reducing target availability.
- Market at 16.5% on only $133 volume likely reflects thin liquidity, headline-risk premium and generic yes-bias rather than concrete intelligence; I sit modestly below it while allowing for loose resolution criteria (e.g., counting drone/missile launches or claimed targeting) that could inflate YES odds.
What would change it: Credible reports of a fresh Houthi missile/drone/USV strike or hijacking against a vessel in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden on or immediately before August 13, 2026 would push this sharply toward YES.
Settlement source-6.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: Across 2025–2026, Houthi successful attacks on shipping have been sporadic clusters separated by months-long lulls, implying well under 10% of individual days feature a confirmed successful strike.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
NOsettled 14 Aug 2026, 21:04 UTC · recorded 14 Aug 2026, 21:04 UTC · entered by handsettlement
NOsettled 16 Aug 2026, 23:01 UTC · recorded 5 Oct 2026, 01:23 UTC · read from the venuesettlement
Corrected against Polymarket's settlement. It was recorded as settled on 14 Aug 2026, before Polymarket settled it on 16 Aug 2026.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.
This call is line t-0004 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.