Cincinnati Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen Khachanov
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 24.0%against a market price of 17.5% at the timeYESNOT SCORED
Logged 15 Aug 2026, 02:25 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Outside view: Kovacevic as first-named YES is the likely underdog; ranking/level gap supports a low-to-mid 20s win chance rather than a coin flip.
- Inside view: Khachanov has the stronger return, baseline tolerance and big-match record, but can be streaky; Kovacevic’s home hard-court setting, serve/forehand upside and ability to extend rallies keep live-underdog paths open. Five-day timing adds minor withdrawal/injury variance but little directional decay.
- My independent 24% is above the 17.5% market; the gap is plausibly from recent-form weighting, seeding/headline-name bias toward Khachanov, or thinner early liquidity rather than decisive private information.
What would change it: A confirmed Khachanov fitness/level edge—e.g., full-strength recent hard-court wins plus Kovacevic fatigue or injury—would push this toward the teens.
Settlement source
Context
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