Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 66.5%against a market price of 72.5% at the timeNONOT SCORED
Logged 15 Aug 2026, 01:14 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Outside view: even a clear MLB favorite is bounded by bullpen variance, BABIP, and one bad inning, so a week-out YES near 72.5% should be regressed toward the mid/high-60s absent confirmed matchup details.
- Inside view: the 7-day gap means probable starters, travel/rest, injuries, and September call-up context are not fully locked, which is signal for uncertainty; any narrative that one club is simply “better” is weak without 2026 roster and pitching data.
- After forming an independent estimate, the 72.5% market price is richer than mine by ~6 points; the plausible cause is matchup/starting-pitcher information and meaningful volume that I cannot observe from the prompt, so I only partially anchor to it.
What would change it: Confirmation of an elite starter for the YES side against a depleted lineup or a major opposing injury would push me toward the market, while a starter scratch or key YES-side injury would push me below 60%.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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