Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?

Logged 9 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC · Brier 0.0613

Observed at the time: BTC spot $82,554, per CoinGecko, 9 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. This market settles on the venue's named exchange, not on CoinGecko; treat this as a close proxy rather than the settlement price.

• The market needs only one Binance 1-minute candle low at or below $80,000 during Oct 5-11, so wicks count rather than closes; the weekly low through Oct 9 of $80,394 implies no qualifying print had occurred yet, leaving only part of Oct 9 plus Oct 10-11.
• The Oct 8 daily low of $80,336.91 shows sellers already probed within about $337 of the barrier, which is signal for elevated tail/wick risk into the same zone.
• The higher Oct 9 daily low of $81,602.41 is counter-signal: the immediate test did not continue downward on Oct 9, suggesting some bounce or absorption after the near-miss.
• Weekend 24/7 trading and thinner liquidity can produce brief 1-minute spikes, but the missing current price and missing complete minute-level history keep this from justifying a high estimate.

What would change it: A verified Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute low at or below $80,000 before 11:59 PM ET Oct 11 would immediately make this YES; absent that, a strong move away from $80,394 would sharply reduce it.

+14.3 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: No retrieved fact gives a historical rate; from general BTC short-horizon volatility behavior, I use roughly a 44% touch probability for a sub-1% barrier over a 48-72 hour remaining window.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 39.0%, without sight of the price; published at 24.8%, the market’s 10.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f1) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.