Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 46.0%against a market price of 38.5% at the timeNO
Logged 14 Aug 2026, 00:43 UTC · Brier 0.2116
- Reference class dominates because the listed 8.5 is a standard, no-push total rather than an extreme number.
- Case-specific evidence is mostly unavailable to me: starters, bullpen state, lineups, umpire, park/roof and weather are the real signals, while Rangers/Angels branding is mostly narrative.
- My independent ~0.46 is above the displayed 38.5%; the divergence is plausibly late market information about pitching/weather/lineups or simply thin $7k liquidity, so I do not treat it as decisive.
What would change it: Confirmation that both starters are elite/healthy with pitcher-friendly weather, roof/umpire or key bats out would move me sharply toward the under and toward the market price.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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